How the war in the Middle East affects Aragon: indirect effects on energy and transport

In a context of growing instability in the Middle East , trade relations between Aragon and Iran represent a small portion of Aragon’s overall foreign trade. However, the Zaragoza Chamber of Commerce warns that the main consequences of the conflict will stem not so much from the direct volume of trade, but from the increased price of oil and gas and the potential disruptions to international shipping routes.

In 2025, Aragonese exports reached 15,615 million euros , of which 1,891 million were destined for the Asian market, including countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

In the case of Iran, Aragonese exports in 2025 amounted to €8.3 million , representing a 34.61% decrease compared to the previous year, consolidating a trend of progressive weakening in recent years. By sector, capital goods stand out as the main export category, with €6.55 million; followed by semi-manufactured goods , with €1.65 million; and food , beverages, and tobacco , with a smaller volume of approximately €124,000.

Imports from Iran reached €1.56 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 8% . The main imported products were consumer goods, semi-manufactured goods, and, to a lesser extent, food, capital goods, and raw materials. The trade balance remains clearly favorable to Aragon, although the total volume indicates limited direct exposure.

EVOLUTION IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Expanding the analysis to include neighboring countries in the region—primarily Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—reveals an uneven evolution. Generally speaking, there has been a trend toward moderation or decline, with the exception of the United Arab Emirates, which experienced significant growth exceeding 50% . In these markets, as in Iran, the most important sectors are capital goods, food, and semi-finished products, reflecting a similar export pattern across the region.

The Zaragoza Chamber of Commerce emphasizes that the main concern for Aragonese companies lies not in the direct loss of market share in Iran—given its relative weight—but in the collateral effects of the conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main arteries of global energy trade, is disrupting international maritime flows and driving up logistics costs. This is compounded by the anticipated surge in oil and gas prices, with a direct impact on production costs, transportation, and profit margins.