Aragon adjusts its economic growth forecast: the Iran war reduces the forecast to 2.7%The Community adjusts its economic forecasts for 2026 in a context marked by international uncertainty

The Iran-Contra conflict is already impacting economic forecasts for Aragon. Ibercaja has released its new quarterly estimates, placing the region among the hardest hit in 2026 , with growth projected to fall to 2.7% , two-tenths of a percentage point lower, due to the weight of industry, transport, and the agricultural sector in its economy.

In the rest of Spain, the adjustment is somewhat smaller . The growth forecast has fallen by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.2%. Even so, Aragon will continue to grow above the national average , although in a more uncertain scenario due to the impact of the price war, interest rates, and economic activity.

According to Enrique Barbero, Director of Communication, Brand and Institutional Relations at Ibercaja, ” 
geopolitics is the main determining variable of the economic situation,” so this context will continue to shape the evolution in the coming months.

In this context, he acknowledged that the war has a greater impact on Aragon than on other regions. Even so, he emphasized that the region enjoys significant support, as it is receiving “ three times more foreign direct investment than it would be entitled to based on its size,” which helps sustain growth.

INDUSTRIAL WEIGHT INCREASES EXPOSURE

The key lies in the economic structure . Aragon has a greater reliance on industry , transport, and agricultural activity than other regions. Santiago Martínez, head of economic and financial analysis at Ibercaja, has indicated that ” energy crises hit regions with a stronger industrial base harder ,” which puts Aragon in a more vulnerable position than other communities.

However, the current scenario points to a limited impact , and the effect on growth is negligible, provided the conflict does not drag on or oil and gas prices do not rise further. If that happens, the impact could be greater.

The forecast for Aragon in 2027 remains at 2.8%, while in Spain as a whole it falls to 1.9%. This means that the region is expected to continue growing at a faster pace , supported by investments already underway that are beginning to have a noticeable impact on economic activity and employment.

DECLINING EXPORTS AND RECORD DEFICIT

The 2025 data paints a somewhat mixed picture. Aragon is growing, but with problems abroad . On the one hand, GDP is up 3.0%, according to the Aragonese Institute of Statistics, and this growth is supported by investment and domestic consumption. Investment in construction and machinery stands out, rising by 9.8%.
 
However, foreign trade is holding back this progress. Exports are falling by 6.9%, while imports are rising by 15.6%. This is resulting in a record deficit of €4.461 billion. Simply put, Aragon is buying far more from abroad than it is selling.

The main change is in the automotive sector, which has gone from generating a surplus to a deficit. In contrast, sectors such as agri-food and semi-manufactured goods continue to show positive results. 

EMPLOYMENT, PRICES AND POPULATION

In Aragon, employment is growing , but at a moderate pace . Employment has increased by 1% according to the Active Population Survey (EPA), and social security affiliations have risen by 2%, representing approximately 12,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate stands at 8%, one of the lowest in the country.

However, wages are rising by only 1%, below inflation, which reduces citizens’ purchasing power . Looking ahead to 2026 , a slight worsening of unemployment is expected , potentially reaching 7.6% in Aragon.

On the other hand, the cost of living continues to rise. The CPI stands at 2.8%, with increases primarily in housing, hospitality, and food. Looking at the trend over time, prices have risen by 22% since 2019 .

Furthermore, the population grows by 1.3% thanks to the arrival of foreign workers, while the native population continues to decline, which maintains challenges such as aging and a lack of workers.