Ibercaja raises its growth forecast for Aragon to 2.8% in 2025, exceeding the national average

Ibercaja has presented its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, revising upwards the increase in GDP in Aragon to 2.8% and in Spain to 2.7% in 2025 (seven and two-tenths higher than its December forecasts). The financial institution has predicted growth of 2.8% and 2.2% , respectively, for 2026 .

The lower-than-expected impact of US tariffs; the positive momentum of the labor market, wages, and savings generated in recent years; and the contribution of the real estate sector’s growth are the three factors that have led the entity to revise upward its estimate for GDP growth in Aragon and Spain by seven and two-tenths of a percentage point, respectively, for 2025.

he Bank has also anticipated its estimated GDP growth for Aragon and Spain in 2026, which will be 2.8% for the Autonomous Community and 2.2% for Spain. The Bank’s Economic and Financial Analysis Unit took into account in making these estimates that Aragon is facing an “extraordinary” investment period, according to the announcements made in 2024 regarding investment projects for the battery gigafactory and data centers.

INCREASES IN LABOR EMPLOYMENT

As Enrique Barbero, Director of Communications, Brand and Institutional Relations at Ibercaja, and Santiago Martínez, Head of Economic and Financial Analysis at the Bank, stated at the presentation of the new issue of Revista Economía Aragonesa, “the increase in their previous forecasts for 2025 and 2026 is largely due to the good employment prospects generated by the construction expansion, which would lead to increases in employment of over 2% per year, with a reduction in the unemployment rate to 7.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026.”

The analysis of the international, national, and regional situation in Ibercaja’s first publication of 2025, “which debuts a new design in line with the Bank’s renewed brand image,” according to Barbero, is marked by the trade war initiated by the President of the United States, which will slow global growth and accelerate price increases, although the extent of its effects remains uncertain.

Ibercaja experts have reported that, in response to downward adjustments to global economic growth forecasts, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates, anticipating a more expansionary fiscal policy, driven in part by increased defense spending. The Federal Reserve, for its part, has adopted a more moderate cut, anticipating greater monetary easing, although tariff increases could hinder this process.

Thus, according to Martínez, “long-term rates have behaved in a divergent manner: they have risen in the eurozone due to greater financing needs, while in the United States they have fallen in response to fears of a deteriorating economic cycle. As a result, the financial market is reflecting these tensions, and after a year of widespread stock market gains in 2024, 2025 is already experiencing greater volatility.”

Regarding the Eurozone, Bank spokespersons referred to GDP growth in 2024, which showed “slight improvements thanks, in part, to private consumption, which was able to generate dynamism in a context of moderate recovery. Job creation, although at a more restrained pace, has been accompanied by modest increases in productivity, keeping unemployment at historic lows. In this context, Spain stands out by exhibiting lower exposure to the tensions arising from the US trade war.”

Barbero and Martínez also confirmed, regarding the inflationary episodes of previous years, that “in 2024 we have left it behind with the normalization of the underlying rate. The CPI continues to fluctuate due to the variability of energy prices, but at much more moderate rates than in 2022 and 2023.”

ARAGON IS LESS VULNERABLE TO EXTERNAL ATTACKS

“For Aragon, the current scenario implies less vulnerability to external shocks, which, together with a favorable domestic outlook in terms of consumption, employment, and savings, predicts a 2025 full of challenges and opportunities for reinvention and sustained growth.” This is how Ibercaja sees the outlook for the Aragonese regional economy in the coming months, which, “as in the national and international scenario, requires a strategic vision and resilience to face the crossroads arising from trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments, and sectoral variations.”

Regarding the current situation, the speakers at the presentation noted that Aragon’s GDP grew at a similar rate to the national average, although the expansion was somewhat slower than that recorded in the pre-pandemic period. However, GDP per capita showed outstanding performance, as the region ranked fifth in growth since 2019 and exceeded the national average by 12%, driven by its own demographic developments.

Aragon’s trade balance suffered a significant deterioration due to a sharper decline in exports relative to imports, reaching its most negative balance since 2006, largely influenced by the automotive and capital goods sectors.

During 2024, both industry and construction strengthened their performance, while the services sector—particularly in areas such as IT, communications, administration, and hospitality —showed notable progress, although tourism did not match the expansion seen in the rest of the country. Likewise, industrial production reached cyclical highs, driven by sectors such as wood, furniture, and minerals, while the real estate market showed dynamic growth in sales and mortgage lending, leading to a notable rise in housing prices.

In the labor market in Aragon, employment grew steadily and unemployment fell significantly, especially in the last quarter. While wages, growing faster than inflation, have almost recovered the purchasing power lost during past inflationary episodes.

SECTORAL INTERRELATIONSHIP, HYPERREGULATION AND GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: IMPACT ON THE REGIONAL BUSINESS STRUCTURE AND ECONOMY

The first special article in this issue, written by members of the established research group “Growth, Demand and Natural Resources,” whose principal investigator is Dr. Rosa Duarte, identifies key sectors and strategic cores within the economic fabric of Aragon through an input-output analysis.

The results of the study “Multisectoral Analysis of the Aragonese Economy: Interdependencies, Dynamic Potential, and Regional Opportunities” highlight the need to strengthen local interactions and boost the absorption of foreign investment through policies that promote sectoral integration, technological development, and integration into global value chains.

In the second monograph, entitled “The Impact of Hyperregulation on Business Cost Overruns,” Gregorio Izquierdo and María Higuera, from the Institute of Economic Studies, reflect on this phenomenon, which constitutes a significant obstacle to business economic performance and undermines market unity. The proliferation of regulations and the existence of a complex regulatory framework force companies to allocate considerable resources to comply with changing and extensive regulations, which limits investment, innovation, and business growth.

The third article, by José Antonio Laínez, Professor of Financial Economics and Accounting at the University of Zaragoza, analyzes how the current geopolitical situation, characterized by tensions between powers, economic fragmentation, and technological competition, is transforming business management. It addresses the impact of this situation on key processes such as supply chains, commercial strategies, financing, investments, and talent management.

The journalistic perspective in this edition is provided by Alicia Ibares, the Aragon representative for the Europa Press news agency, who reviews the latest economic developments in the autonomous community in an article entitled “Aragon, an economy with rasmia.”

The business vision of this issue is provided by Jesús Marco López, CEO of Marcotran Transportes Internacionales, a logistics and transport company founded in the 1970s that offers warehousing, transport, customs, agency and consulting services. It has around 1,600 employees and an annual turnover of close to 200 million euros.