Aragon grew in the fourth quarter of 2025: moderate inflation and a strong labor market

The OECD published its usual interim spring report at the end of March , focusing on the Iranian conflict and its consequences. In addition to the surge in energy prices, the OECD highlights the increase in volatility in financial markets, particularly in some Asian economies, as well as a tightening of financial conditions.

According to the OECD, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside and highly dependent on the duration and scope of the conflict in Iran, while also keeping a close eye on the war in Ukraine and the volatility of tariff and trade policies. Conversely, an early resolution of the conflict would lead to lower energy prices and an improved global outlook. 

In this context, in the autumn of 2025, both the Aragonese and Spanish economies continued to grow at a very significant rate , above the Eurozone average, supported by robust domestic demand and, in turn, a strong labor market. Thus, Aragon ‘s GDP increased by 2.7% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025, the same rate observed in the summer and also that recorded for Spain as a whole . This figure brought the year to a close with average GDP growth of 3%, above the Spanish average.

The labor market mirrored the increase in production, with rising employment and falling unemployment, bringing the unemployment rate in the fall to 7.7% of the active population in Aragon and 9.9% nationally. Inflation accelerated slightly due to energy prices, reaching an annual rate of 3.0% in Aragon and in Spain on average for the fourth quarter. Core inflation was more moderate, at 2.6% annually in both cases.

The preliminary indicators available for the first quarter of 2026 suggest that the Aragonese economy’s GDP growth rate will remain dynamic, although less robust than that achieved at the end of 2025, similar to the trend observed for the national economy as a whole. Both Spain and Aragon continue to face a downside-leaning balance of risks, in a scenario marked by the escalating conflict in the Middle East between the US and Israel, on the one hand, and the Iranian regime, on the other.